From Barcelona, to Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus lately, the monetary and footballing disparity between Europe’s elite and the remainder has warped notion. Lifting the league trophy on the finish of the season not gives security for a head coach.
Even then, Bayern are an excessive instance. Within the six years since Pep Guardiola left for Manchester Metropolis, they’ve gone by means of six head coaches, regardless of successful the Bundesliga in each season over that very same interval.
Bayern have been world standard-bearers for almost 4 a long time. The place different golf equipment and leagues have had lull durations away from the very highest ranges of European soccer, they’ve persistently been in competition for silverware, even in comparatively weak durations.
Simply as importantly, although, the prevalence golf equipment like Bayern now take pleasure in nearly robotically dictates they’ll dominate possession in lots of video games, no matter the ideology of the coach in cost and whether or not their groups can perform with the ball as a consequence.
Niko Kovac’s first season in 2018-19 was a great instance of this. Bayern got here nowhere close to functioning in possession relative to the array of expertise that they had and nonetheless – together with some support from Borussia Dortmund’s regression to the imply after preliminary xG over-performance underneath Lucien Favre – managed an 11-point turnaround from third place in February to win the Bundesliga.
In the meantime, they had been comprehensively overwhelmed by Liverpool within the final 16 of the Champions League with nearly all of possession. Issues declined even additional underneath Kovac in his second season, earlier than Hansi Flick took over the pinnacle teaching position, conquered Europe and subsequently changed Joachim Low because the German nationwide group coach on the finish of the 2020-21 season.
That is the broader context that should be thought-about for Julian Nagelsmann’s first season and what follows, as a result of each membership and worldwide soccer finally acts inside a continuum. Forward of this weekend’s Klassiker, very similar to that first season underneath Kovac, there’s a dissonance that may accompany Bayern’s title win.
In the end, a tenth consecutive Bundesliga title won’t wash away the style of Bayern’s meek elimination by the hands of Villarreal within the Champions League quarter-finals. These two legs had been a microcosm of quite a few features regarding this Bayern season – their true capability in possession relative to the extent of opposition, Nagelsmann’s continuous switching between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 formations, and eventually from a standpoint of web achieve, whether or not he’s actually getting essentially the most out of the extraordinary artistic forces which can be Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski.
It’s exhausting to overstate how Muller and Lewandowski offered greater than objectives and assists for Bayern underneath Flick. The utilisation of that duo was integral to the group’s very functioning in possession, particularly with Thiago Alcantara lacking vital parts of that post-lockdown run late within the 2019-20 season. Kingsley Coman’s decisive aim within the 2020 Champions League remaining in opposition to PSG was an ideal image of the group when all three of Lewandowski, Muller and Thiago performed – having initially tried to cowl Muller, Leandro Paredes had to scramble, however it was too late, as Thiago fired his go into Joshua Kimmich and Bayern received up the pitch.
Their mixed touches in open play per 90 minutes underneath respective coaches makes for a great start line. Below Kovac, Lewandowski and Muller held a mixed 98.19 touches and three.35 possibilities created from open play per 90 in all competitions. Flick’s arrival results in a dramatic spike for the 2 in each classes, with 107.6 touches in open play and 4.53 possibilities created in open play per 90.
Father Time will dictate an inevitable decline for the 2 as they strategy 35, however extra pertinently, Nagelsmann’s strategy has led to a return to their numbers underneath Kovac, with 98.59 touches per match and three.85 possibilities created from open play between the 2 in all competitions this season. Then there’s the discrepancy in eventual shot location.
The distinction lies in involvement. Below Flick, Muller and Lewandowski successfully performed as two strikers in a 4-4-2, whereas the wingers saved the line of defense pinned again, permitting the 2 with adequate area to retreat and function between the traces. Particularly with midfielders like Kimmich and Leon Goretzka who don’t like receiving the ball in tight areas, it was a crucial element of Bayern’s play and enabled them to open up the pitch.
Kimmich’s improve in likelihood creation – his 2.83 per 90 this season is his highest out of the final 4 seasons in all competitions – is arguably born of the very fact he’s now Bayern’s set-piece taker. His likelihood creation in open play has truly gone down from final season’s 1.68 to 1.44, regardless of a rise in touches from 100.8 to 105.85.
Lewandowski and Muller’s comparatively increased positioning and first goal of risk behind the line of defense underneath Nagelsmann frankly makes the switching between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 irrelevant, as a result of the 34-year-old has taken away the very factor that made Bayern perform to start with – the pair’s capability to include in addition to get on the top of strikes. Jamal Musiala’s deployment in a 3-4-3 within the second leg in opposition to Villarreal solely managed to clog the center of the pitch up even additional.
The participant who has suffered essentially the most with this alteration, nonetheless, is Serge Gnabry. His mixed xG+xA determine of 0.92 in 2019-20 has dramatically decreased to 0.69 this yr, whereas the center of the pitch has been utterly closed off to him, one thing evident in his dribble development.
All of it pertains to the eventuality of Bayern’s shot location and high quality. Shot quantity in Nagelsmann’s first season has gone as much as 20.13 compared to the 18.08 of that treble season underneath Flick, however they’re capturing from additional away, and with no improve in xG per shot. In opposition to higher defences, groups that maintain excessive volumes of possession however finally wrestle to play by means of the center of the pitch are ultimately discovered. That has been the case this yr, in Europe and specific in home losses to Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Monchengladbach.
This all exists amid the backdrop of Bayern Munich’s waning monetary energy and standing as a vacation spot in relation to the remainder of Europe’s elite. Bayern centre-back Niklas Sule is ready to depart for arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund. Rising stars from throughout the Bundesliga who historically would have been assured to finish up at Sabener Strasse comparable to Dortmund’s Erling Haaland, or RB Leipzig’s Cristopher Nkunku and Josko Gvardiol, seem destined for elsewhere.
Within the meantime, Bayern are reportedly haggling with Ajax over the discharge of Ryan Gravenberch who, regardless of the hype, arguably won’t rework their midfield – very similar to Corentin Tolisso and Marc Roca.
There may be additionally the small matter of Lewandowski’s contract not being renewed and operating the danger of expiring on the finish of subsequent season.
Sustained success can run the danger of offering diminishing returns, very similar to Juventus found in Italy. The query for Bayern is easy methods to keep away from it each as a membership and underneath Nagelsmann, however can they?